Last week news wires discussed BUSH submitting to IRAQ sovereignty plan (50  plus permanent bases; right to arrest Iraqi's; US not subject to Iraq justice, etc). Today news show IRAQ and Maliki have REJECTED this proposal (RAW STORY has good link).

OBAMA should pounce on this story- it shows the BUSH/MCCAIN IRAQ was is complete fiacso- even getting past the invalid idea of going in, "flawed execution strategy", surge arguments that McCain is using now, this rejection by IRAQ of the US proposal shows that even today there is NO viable political solution (status quo)- and the BUSH/MCCAIN strategy going FORWARD is bad policy and a non starter.

If OBAMA argues this correctly he will seize the IRAQ/Foreign policy issue from McCAin (which to date I reluctantly see as a draw)(ie Obama right to avoid war and pull out; but McCAin is a war guy who might have plan to Win).  

This is a game changer

   Hillary's concession speech was very good, gracious, inspiring and hit hit the right notes. I believed she needed to do three things to really unify the party and bring over her core voters: (1) graciously concede, (2) praise and recommend Obama, and (3) Criticize  McCain. She did the first two very well, but did NOT do the third.
    She needs to do this soon. The whole idea is to make sure women and white poor/less educated voters (her base), don't see McCain as a viable alternative and cross over. Her good words on Obama are a start and VERY helpful, but she need to really hammer and criticize McCain (at east on issues) (right to choose, taxes, war, etc) so the contrast is clear and stark. Leaving it implied is not enough. She must (softly) attack-soon or some of her most ardent supporters may wander.

I have suspected for the last three weeks that Hillary was feigning playing nice, seeming to run out the string to June 3 (no negative attacks) where she would drop out, when her REAL goal was to go all the way to the convention, appeal any Fla/Mich compromise, and work to get a tie (the nuclear option- Rachel Maddow theory)

She is such a Machevelian figure, and skilled politician, with such a huge base of women supporters, and such a strong brand name (H is former 2 time Pres) that I thought she would succeed all the way until the floor of the convention, when a wounded Obama would "win" only at Denver.

She was the king, the front runner. I envisioned the Ali- Foreman fight, Foreman (Hil) was a huge favorite going in (though not well liked), Ali started winning during fight, but it was still a huge effort to finally knock Foreman down and out at the end, and he was like a rock until he went down.  

Tonight is that night; I strongly believe that if the supers and party have any sense, Hil is knocked out tonight with this horrid, tone deaf comment. The pressure and desperation got to her.

Wall to wall Ted Kennedy on Cable news- appropriate- he is the lion of the Senate. I don't well up too much and though a lot of statements were poignant, but one in particular got me. I caught Mike Barnacle (a great news guy and writer) on Hardball and he was talking about when he had his troubles in 1998, out in Mass late one night he opened his front door and it was Ted Kennedy himself; he came with a rosary giving him a hug and telling him it would be alright- its always darkest before the dawn- major well up again- just wanted to share- check it out- it really was touching  

Lets get this meme out.

Everyone is rightfully pointing out obvious points against Hil now wanting to count FLA/MICH as is

1. She originally agreed and signed pledge it wouldn't count

2. Unfair- BO not even on MI ballot, both agreed not to campaign in FLA/MI

3. BO supporters didn't go to polls because not on ballot (MI) and didn't count (FLA)

But no one is stressing a major point- Hillary SANDBAGGED New Hampshire voters. Before New Hampshire, she agreed early FLA /MI didn't count (primacy of ealry NH primary)- She then WON New Hampshire- which was her comeback, otherwise she would have been blown away.

AFTER New Hampshire, NOW she claims it should count- She has sandbagged NH, maybe they would withdraw their vote (and IOWA would have been even a bigger BO win) if she was up front about this.

I wish MSM would point this out  

Ed would be great strategic choice- here's why:

1. Tough, gruff, blue collar guy

2. Very engaging

3. He can deliver- he will deliver PA- Important state

4. This can unify party- he was obviously a BIG Hillary backer; and Hil women and Hil backers do have great admiration for guy- he really was a loyal Hil supporter all year, who delivered for her-

5. Plus this looks like olive branch for Clinton's (without picking Hil)and for women (as stringest Hil backer) w/out picking a woman and other than Clinton (wrong for other reasons) no woman candidate for VP will help BO this year)  

6. MSM really like him- Tweety, Russert et al- that will have impact

7. Removes him from supporting Hil in 2012 (if she tries again)

8. He is what blue collar white guys would like- sorry but this is important factor

Theres more

Big BO backer here. But I have to ask, why is BO putting up no fight in final primaries- He should be in West Virginia (more than 1 day fly over), and in Kentucky more (as well as OR). He should at least be using some of the cash for heavy ads in those states. I realize by going he risks charge that he tried and lost BIG- and that he want to pivot to MCCain/general, (but cant he do BOTH?). I fear the narrative- lost West Virginia big, and may lose Kentucky big, too, for the next TEN DAYS.

There are some delegates at stake-
West Va- 28
Kentucky 51 (Ore 52)

And he needs to get at least 30 % in West Va or he could get SHUT OUT in delegates (-28)(20 % of his delegate lead). Maybe its just me but I want him to scratch and claw for ever delegate possible. Never like to see the winning team coast at the end/prevent defense. Especially when it could feed the Hil "white voter problem".

CAVEAT- unless he is doing this as part of deal to let Hil get a big win Tue to then gracefully exit. But she would have had to signal dropping FLA.MI nuclear option fight- Haven't seen that yet.

WHATS UP- getting just a bit nervous here    

Hil shows her race baiting with quote today in USA Today- " I am strongest among whites". MSM has for weeks also broadcasted this endlessly.

But this is not exactly accurate- and this misconception must be corrected. Her relatively big lead among whites has come from white WOMEN. Its not that BO will have huge trouble carrying white Dem votes in GE, its that white WOMEN back HIL very strongly, even militantly, for understandable reason she is best shot at women president for forseeable future

Jay Cost at RCP has great breakdown of polling data, last few primaries:

HIL ADVANTAGE-     IND/     PA/     OH          NC     /TENN
White WOMEN       + 20%,    + 36    +36         +32%    + %52 %  
White MEN         + 16%,    + 14,   + 19        +13     + 26
Blacks            - 80%     80      74          84      55

       

More analysis

Rev Wright made crazy, outlandish statements in the past (looped and by repetition now somewhat taken out of context); and Obama took the strong yet safe position of denigrating the comments, but NOT throwing the man under the bus- He gave Wright the out of sitting back quietly until after Dem primary, stay out of the limelight and let ON try to defuse.  

Wright thanked OB by staying IN the limelight another 2 weeks with his now magical mystery tour,  giving the story new legs, and even throwing in a few new wrinkles- OB is "just a politician" saying what he has to say, etc.

OB inevitabilty is now slowly slipping in MSM- he now has the green light-

He should forcefully distance himself from Wright- simply-say "he is an old man, I love the man, but I disagree strongly with his comments. He is speaking about the struggles from the past; I am a new politician, post partisan and post activist- I am seeking to lead in the 21st Century and do not condone these old style politics- I am running, NOT rev. Wright" Simple- he needs to do it ASAP

 

 

MSM right now-
Obama wounded
Obama not a fighter
Obama stresses process, inevitability, while Hil is fighter
Hil policy wonk, talks kitchen jobs, healthcare, OB just speaches

I have one suggestion that will CHANGE the narrative

Obama should agree to a new debate- demand it be on ABC AGAIN!

Why?
Shows guts, daring, not afraid, and that he will fight
Also looks fair, magnanimous, willing to oblige/engage Hil to end
Also, this time, with all the heat- Gibson and runt wont dare
  ask the same tripe as last time, and if they do, they'll get booed, and
  OB will earn points, maybe, they will turn on Hil, or ask REAL   questions

One thing I dont see any commentators stressing is that even though Obama is leading overall national delegates and popular vote, that the reason Hil is even close is massive uptick in women voters rushng to Hil in Dem primaries-

          2004 Dem % women      2008 Dem % Women
TX             53                     57
OH             53                     59
MA             54                     58
RI             55                     57
PA              ?                     59

PA vote was 59 % women! There is no was BO can crush her with knock out blow when almost 60 % or electorate is women. This is why also he needs to treat her with kit gloves.

This should be stressed more to MSM  

Yesterday on hardball Matthews took a relatively neutral stance on the ABC debate debacle- seemed bit trivial, but BO needs to show he can handle the fir, and didn't -

Bit then he came up with a whopper- he said from his sources Hil will win by 14 or 15 %, something like 57-43 (but that might not be enough)

After being scared, I started to wonder, is he INTENTIONALLY raising the bar so if HIl ONLY wins by 8-10 he will say BO got a lot closer than he thought- is he HELPING BO. Alot of other pundits have recently bought Hil line that she needs to win big (then they peg "big" at the absurdly low 5 % ala Rendell).

But something is up with Tweety, MSNBC, maybe they are getting sick of the  Hil trash show.  

Hil- Answer this one question-

Why are rush supporters (who you admit are right wind conspirators who HATE the Clintons) crossing over to vote for YOU? Doesn't this tell you they are using YOU to destroy Dems in 2008

Also-

Why don't you call them out?

Why do you interview with arch enemy Richard Mellon Scaife?

You are fighting and tarring OBAMA to try to reach a TIE, and then wrest nomination from Obama. Why; are you willing to tar Clinton name for Dems for next 30 years- the next generation?

memo out today is great; generals standing up for Obama yesterday was great- But Obama should make TV ad for Pennsylvania mocking Hil ready on day one/Commander and Chief creds-

Forget about citing 3:00 am ad- your using her framing and look responsive; instead- cut ad based on great photos on Kos last week abou Hil singing in Northern Ireland, photos of her tea chats, etc- there was great diary on this last week- The meme- Hil has no foreign policy experience; she only did silly photo ops- need Video and photos

Cons- Makes OB look negative, just like her
Pros-  1. Looks tough- meme will be OB can FIGHT back too, can be tough
      2. Will take Hil down a peg on this issue- this is legit
      3. He still can stay above the fray in GE- this is explicitly as to  Hillary because SHE brought this subject up
      4. Will not hurt in GE- Hil is hated by Repugs
NOTE- Mocking may be too much, but somehow having photos/footage of Hil as First Lady would help OB where he needs it; PA down scale Dem MEN and some women- If he loses PA and Florida, he may have problem- he needs to FIGHT

Hil claims she should get Dem nod because she has proven she can win in big blue stakes she won (squeeked by) in Dem primaries- ie NY, NJ, MASS, OHIO , etc. This is false- Obama wins general in these states too-

See recent SUSA polls GE
      Hil/ McCain     OB/Mccain      DEM WINS  
Cal    50-40           51-40          BOTH  
NY     53-33           52-38          BOTH
OHIO   50-40           50-40          BOTH (poll unclear)
MASS   55-37           49-42          BOTH
NJ     47-42           43-43          HIL/TIE
TEX    42-49           46-47          Hil lose, OB tie

Obama and supporters may have reacted a bit flat footed after Surprise 3:00 am commercial (although they are ok so far), and they may think too little, too late-

BUT MSM is playing it up as pretty good politics, and it is changing/driving  debate last few news cycles

BARAK should hit Hillary head on-

What is Hillary's military experience?

1. She was NEVER in military

2. She has never been commander and chief- Who was the commander and chief, her or Bill-

3. She has never managed/run a war

4. Her one time to influence policy, and she voted FOR IRAQ

5. As chairman of armed service committee, has she been able to change/counter BUSH's disastrous foreign policy?

5. An she even voted to basically bomb IRAN, too-

 Ask these rhetorically- what is Hillary's experience, lets see her answer.  

Watching the debate this week (Hil was quite good, Barak pretty good too),
especially at the end when Hil was almost gracious and poetic, and then seeing Hillary at her screechathon in Ohio Saturday, where i think she came off awful, I really dont know who Hil really is after all these months. I saw somewhere article this week about Metaphors for the two- which I think summarize alot: here are some I like:

1. Barack is Mozart on the stump, Hillary is Salieri (from Tweety himself- but this is my favorite)

2. Election Movie- Hillary is Reese Witherspoon, Barack is the popular jock guy against her

3. Hillary is Nixon (personality), Barack is RFK/JFK- I cited this last week and was torched- but her activity the last week again is Nixonian personality wise (though again I do NOT believe she is corrupt, Nixon was- Im just talking about personality here)

 

4. Barack is Martin Luther King; Hillary is LBJ (per Hil herself)

Just my thoughts on how they both come off- which is again important in general election. Which would we rather run in the general?

They're all just slogans from the Status quo- We dont need slogans, we need real leadership and CHANGE- and thats what I intend to offer.

If Obama can ever turn the "ready on day 1"/"experience" brags into a punchline, and link Hillary with Bush again with these lines (like he is linking Hil and Bush with the Iraq War, he will wrap up this thing quick.