Myth Busted- Hil not huge with whites, only white WOMEN
Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:51:08 AM PDT
Hil shows her race baiting with quote today in USA Today- " I am strongest among whites". MSM has for weeks also broadcasted this endlessly.
But this is not exactly accurate- and this misconception must be corrected. Her relatively big lead among whites has come from white WOMEN. Its not that BO will have huge trouble carrying white Dem votes in GE, its that white WOMEN back HIL very strongly, even militantly, for understandable reason she is best shot at women president for forseeable future
Jay Cost at RCP has great breakdown of polling data, last few primaries:
HIL ADVANTAGE- IND/ PA/ OH NC /TENN
White WOMEN + 20%, + 36 +36 +32% + %52 %
White MEN + 16%, + 14, + 19 +13 + 26
Blacks - 80% 80 74 84 55
More analysis
What this shows is that
- BO has improved his "white vote" from pre IN/NC, to IN/NC, esp among white women
- Most importantly, overall he only has about 15 point gap with white men (57-43), its with white WOMEN where he is losing BIG (OH, PA was 36 % gap) (rust belt states)
- In south, even more pronounced, White WOMEN gap 32%, 52 % (TENN); white MEN in NC, only 13 % gap
- Also, not on chart, from PA/OH to IND he improved Hil gap with non college votes from avg + 17% to only + 8 %, and from under $ 50,000 income from + 7.5 % to EVEN in Indiana
- And this is also in the face of Rush operation chaos which seems to have funneled a few percentage point white votes to Hil (men and women) who would have otherwise not voted in Dem primaries
ANOTHER POINT- HUGE PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN AS OVERALL VOTE
Also, as to the women voter issue (and my thesis that its women pride , or women (understandably ) supporting HIL (and not popularity with "white" voters that is keeping her close, as I've stated before one thing I don't see any commentators stressing is that even though Obama is leading overall national delegates and popular vote, that the reason Hil is even close is massive uptick in the percentage of women voters rushing to Hil in Dem primaries-
2004 Dem % women 2008 Dem % Women
TX 53 57
OH 53 59
MA 54 58
RI 55 57
PA ? 59
PA and OH vote was 59 % women! There is a limit to BO ability to carry even a higher percentage of vote when almost 60 % or electorate is women.
This is not intended to be either racist, or sexist; my key point is
we need to STOP the meme that HIL is hugely popular with all "white" voters; and stress her popularity is with white WOMEN; who will come into the fold when it is OB v. McCain