Daily Kos

False Claim- Hillary does better in GE in Big states she won Dem Primary

Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 11:30:29 AM PDT

Hil claims she should get Dem nod because she has proven she can win in big blue stakes she won (squeeked by) in Dem primaries- ie NY, NJ, MASS, OHIO , etc. This is false- Obama wins general in these states too-

See recent SUSA polls GE
      Hil/ McCain     OB/Mccain      DEM WINS  
Cal    50-40           51-40          BOTH  
NY     53-33           52-38          BOTH
OHIO   50-40           50-40          BOTH (poll unclear)
MASS   55-37           49-42          BOTH
NJ     47-42           43-43          HIL/TIE
TEX    42-49           46-47          Hil lose, OB tie

PA     47-46        42-47            Hil - but primary not yet taken

All Hil has is some extra cushion in these states, but OB is way ahead TOO. -NO GE advantage

Lets look at swing-  

COLO     42-48        50-41            BO only
NEV      41-49        46-41            BO only
NEW MEX  47-47        50-43            BO only- HIl tie
IOWA     41-46        50-41            BO only
VA       40-50        47-47            BO tie only
FLA      51-42        45-47            HIL/ BO tie
ARK      51-40        33-53            HIL only

Analysis-
HIl no real big blue state advantage; her squeekers over Obama in primary  
are irrelevant- they BOTH win these in GE, only Hil by slightly bigger margin- NY will not turn red for either.

As to swing states, BO has clear advantage, EXCEPT for ARK, and maybe Florida-

     
   

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